Study on prediction of approaching tipping points

Tipping points are critical threshold values at which a small change in a parameter can lead to a system shifting from one stable state to another. When a system approaches a tipping point, statistical early warning signals can often be observed. Frequently cited climate tipping points are, for example, the collapse of ice sheets in the West Antarctic or the "tipping" of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). The AMOC is one of the most important components of the global thermohaline circulation, a huge conveyor belt in the ocean that circulates warm and cold water at different depths in the Atlantic. Changes in the fluctuations of the AMOC strength have been used in earlier studies as statistical early warning signals for the approaching tipping of the Atlantic overturning circulation.

Researchers from the Alfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research (AWI) and Utrecht University have investigated the connection between statistical early warning signals and the predicition of approaching climate tipping points in the scientific journal Nature Climate Change. Prof. Thomas Laepple from MARUM is significantly involved in the article.

“Studies that attempt to predict climate tipping points using statistical early warning signals often confuse the probability that such signals would occur in the observational data if a tipping point were imminent with the actual probability that a climate tipping point will actually be exceeded,” reports first author Dr. Vanessa Skiba from AWI Potsdam. This confusion could lead to a distorted assessment of statistical significance.

“There are also numerous other effects – such as changes in the quality of climate observations, which can trigger false alarms and have often been insufficiently taken into account so far,” adds Prof. Thomas Laepple, who co-led the study

Climate tipping points and scenarios for a warming world will also be researched by Laepple and his colleagues as part of the planned MARUM Cluster of Excellence “The Ocean Floor – Earth's Uncharted Interface”.